Post by Site Admin on Jun 13, 2013 18:43:16 GMT -5
After Game 1 of the 2013 NBA Finals, the big question was, "Can you believe Tony Parker hit that?" After Game 2, the big question was, "How the hell do you stop the Miami Heat when they play like that?" After Game 3, it was, "How the hell do you beat the San Antonio Spurs when they shoot like that?"
We don't yet know what the main topic of conversation will be after Thursday's Game 4, but we do know what some of the big questions are heading into this critical matchup. By night's end, we'll either have a knotted-up best-of-three NBA Finals or a Spurs team locked into a commanding 3-1 lead and within 48 minutes of the fifth NBA title of the Gregg Popovich-Tim Duncan era. Walk with me a bit as we run down seven big questions rattling around my brain today:
1. Can the Heat continue their five-month-long streak of winning after a loss?
Kind of a big one, right? You've likely already heard or read this note, but it's worth mentioning again: The Heat haven't lost back-to-back games since dropping two straight to the Indiana Pacers and Portland Trail Blazers on Jan. 8 and Jan. 10. And the Heat haven't just avoided losing streaks — they've been dominant in doing so.
Game 4 will mark the 12th time since Jan. 10 that the Heat have entered a game coming off a loss. They've won the previous 11 by an average of 19.8 points per game. The margin's risen to 21.6 following Miami's five postseason losses, including a 19-point win in Game 2 on Sunday after dropping the opening contest of the Finals.
There are obviously plenty of things that go into a stat like that — changes in opposition during the regular season, in-series adjustments in the playoffs, etc. — but if nothing else, Miami's shown an ability to bounce back after bad beats without carrying too much of the sour momentum forward with them, which could serve them in good stead on Thursday.
"We've been at our best when I guess our backs are up against the wall, and we're at it again," LeBron James said Wednesday. "We'll see how we respond tomorrow."
2. What will the "better" LeBron look like, and how will the Spurs address it?
A big part of that response, obviously, hinges on whether or not James can break through a Spurs defense that has been brilliant at stifling him throughout most of the series' first three games.
"They're doing a great job of putting bodies in front of me and not allowing me to have some of the creases I have had throughout the playoffs," James said. "Some of it is me being out of rhythm. It's a little bit of both."
Really, it's been a lot of both, as a Spurs defensive attack led by primary on-ball defender Kawhi Leonard, secondary on-ball defender Danny Green and a well-drilled, focused group behind them has sagged far off James in the half-court, showing him that he's going to get swarmed if he drives and aiming to keep him on the perimeter. And while James has put in a ton of work to improve his jumper over the past couple of seasons, you'd clearly much rather have James firing outside-the-paint shots he hit at about a 42 percent clip this year than getting into the restricted area, where he made three-quarters of his tries during the regular season.
The strategy's paid off brilliantly for San Antonio, as James has taken just 15 shots at the rim (about 2 1/2 fewer per game than he managed during the season) and 39 shots outside the restricted area (about 2 1/2 more per game than during the season) through three Finals games. Even better, the four-time MVP's had scarcely any touch on anything fired from further than a couple of feet out, shooting just 23.7 percent on attempts outside the restricted area.
Will LeBron step out of the phone booth in Game 4? (Joe Murphy/NBAE/Getty Images)
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said he hasn't seen anything on tape that indicates a hitch in James' jumper or something mechanically unsound in his star's approach, which has led some to wonder whether the issue lies between James' ears. He's not trying to hear that.
"Mentally, it's not a problem. Mentally, I'm not out of it, saying that my shot is gone," James said. "I know what I can do. It's just about going up there and knocking them down. I will do that."
While Spoelstra ("No, it's not all on him — it's all of us") and teammate Ray Allen ("First and foremost, he has to allow us to help him — he can't feel he always has to take so much of the burden on himself") disagree with the notion that James has to, or should, take full responsibility for Game 3, James understands as much as anyone the way superstars are judged and the disproportionate burden of stardom.
"I have all the confidence in the world in my teammates. But I am the star, I am the leader, and they look at me to do things on the court, to make plays," he said. "And if I'm not doing it, I'm not doing my job."
So he's vowed to be "better" in Game 4, with much of the focus trained on how a jumper-reliant James has managed just six free-throw attempts in three games, including a big fat zero in Game 3. Like just about everyone else in the free world, LeBron finds this unacceptable.
"I mean, 7 for 21 isn't going to cut it. Zero free throws," James said. "I had 11 rebounds, I had 5 assists, but 7 for 21 and zero free throws ain't going to cut it [...] You have to figure out ways offensively that you can make an impact."
One would assume, then, that James would look for more opportunities to drive to the basket against the San Antonio defense and seek contact in the paint, which could make the game management of referees Scott Foster, Mike Callahan and Bill Kennedy a key element of Game 4. (Here's hoping not, though.)
3. So how can the Heat get LeBron attacking more often?
For one thing, he can start by trying to take advantage of San Antonio switches/cross-matches that result in him singled up on the likes of Tim Duncan or Tiago Splitter up top. He's drawn those matchups multiple times in this series and too often settled for jumpers rather than trying to take the Spurs' bigs off the bounce, which in context makes sense (don't drive into a thicket of defenders' arms, do take a shot that your teammates have a better chance of rebounding without a big inside) but also reduces the likelihood of him drawing a foul on the drive or getting to a rim unprotected by a shot-blocker. Ditto for post touches — Leonard and Green have been better against James on the block than many suspected thus far, but the sheer number of ways James can dismantle a defense from the post would seem to demand more opportunities there.
What else? On Wednesday, James mentioned pushing the ball off defensive rebounds, "where I'm getting the ball off the backboard and trying to create some early offense instead of playing against their half‑court defense." He also seemed to like one reporter's suggestion of receiving the ball on the move rather than operating in a static screen-and-roll attack where the Spurs defense can load up and key in on him.
Will Miami go back to the Chalmers-James pick-and-roll? (Noah Graham/NBAE/Getty Images)
On that last score, it'll be interesting to see if Spoelstra decides to take another look at the pick-and-roll with with Miami had such success in Game 2, as James and point guard Mario Chalmers sliced and diced the Spurs defense to key their huge second-half run. The Heat didn't go to it very much in Game 3 and were unsuccessful when they did, generating no field-goal attempts and three turnovers in the Chalmers-James screen game.
Miami did, however, get some good looks when James ran it with Cole early in the game, with the backup hitting a short jumper, LeBron creating a baseline dive and dunk for Chris Andersen, and Cole getting a layup that missed but generated an offensive rebounding opportunity on successive trips in the first quarter. They largely went away from it, however, after Leonard used his long arms and strong hands to steal an attempted Cole feed to a rolling James on the first play of the second quarter — but an eventual return to the action netted James an open 3-pointer.
So why did it work with Cole and not with Chalmers? Well, for one thing, Chalmers seemed to have an awful time finding any sort of rhythm or pace in Game 3, following up his fantastic Game 2 performance with an 0-for-5, four-turnover, four-foul clunker. For another, though, the successful Chalmers-James pick-and-rolls from Game 2 came with the duo sharing the floor with floor-spacers Allen and Mike Miller, who forced the Spurs' wings to stay connected to them defensively (opening up those "creases" for Chalmers and James) or pay the price via the long ball.
All three times they tried it in Game 3, though, they ran it with Dwyane Wade on the floor, and — as I've written — Wade's been awful shooting from anywhere outside the restricted area. This gives the Spurs defending Wade (mostly Green and Manu Ginobili) a license to sag even further off him than San Antonio's been sagging off James, which all but eliminates any of the space Chalmers or James might be able to use to either pull up or attack the rack after the screen:
We don't yet know what the main topic of conversation will be after Thursday's Game 4, but we do know what some of the big questions are heading into this critical matchup. By night's end, we'll either have a knotted-up best-of-three NBA Finals or a Spurs team locked into a commanding 3-1 lead and within 48 minutes of the fifth NBA title of the Gregg Popovich-Tim Duncan era. Walk with me a bit as we run down seven big questions rattling around my brain today:
1. Can the Heat continue their five-month-long streak of winning after a loss?
Kind of a big one, right? You've likely already heard or read this note, but it's worth mentioning again: The Heat haven't lost back-to-back games since dropping two straight to the Indiana Pacers and Portland Trail Blazers on Jan. 8 and Jan. 10. And the Heat haven't just avoided losing streaks — they've been dominant in doing so.
Game 4 will mark the 12th time since Jan. 10 that the Heat have entered a game coming off a loss. They've won the previous 11 by an average of 19.8 points per game. The margin's risen to 21.6 following Miami's five postseason losses, including a 19-point win in Game 2 on Sunday after dropping the opening contest of the Finals.
There are obviously plenty of things that go into a stat like that — changes in opposition during the regular season, in-series adjustments in the playoffs, etc. — but if nothing else, Miami's shown an ability to bounce back after bad beats without carrying too much of the sour momentum forward with them, which could serve them in good stead on Thursday.
"We've been at our best when I guess our backs are up against the wall, and we're at it again," LeBron James said Wednesday. "We'll see how we respond tomorrow."
2. What will the "better" LeBron look like, and how will the Spurs address it?
A big part of that response, obviously, hinges on whether or not James can break through a Spurs defense that has been brilliant at stifling him throughout most of the series' first three games.
"They're doing a great job of putting bodies in front of me and not allowing me to have some of the creases I have had throughout the playoffs," James said. "Some of it is me being out of rhythm. It's a little bit of both."
Really, it's been a lot of both, as a Spurs defensive attack led by primary on-ball defender Kawhi Leonard, secondary on-ball defender Danny Green and a well-drilled, focused group behind them has sagged far off James in the half-court, showing him that he's going to get swarmed if he drives and aiming to keep him on the perimeter. And while James has put in a ton of work to improve his jumper over the past couple of seasons, you'd clearly much rather have James firing outside-the-paint shots he hit at about a 42 percent clip this year than getting into the restricted area, where he made three-quarters of his tries during the regular season.
The strategy's paid off brilliantly for San Antonio, as James has taken just 15 shots at the rim (about 2 1/2 fewer per game than he managed during the season) and 39 shots outside the restricted area (about 2 1/2 more per game than during the season) through three Finals games. Even better, the four-time MVP's had scarcely any touch on anything fired from further than a couple of feet out, shooting just 23.7 percent on attempts outside the restricted area.
Will LeBron step out of the phone booth in Game 4? (Joe Murphy/NBAE/Getty Images)
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said he hasn't seen anything on tape that indicates a hitch in James' jumper or something mechanically unsound in his star's approach, which has led some to wonder whether the issue lies between James' ears. He's not trying to hear that.
"Mentally, it's not a problem. Mentally, I'm not out of it, saying that my shot is gone," James said. "I know what I can do. It's just about going up there and knocking them down. I will do that."
While Spoelstra ("No, it's not all on him — it's all of us") and teammate Ray Allen ("First and foremost, he has to allow us to help him — he can't feel he always has to take so much of the burden on himself") disagree with the notion that James has to, or should, take full responsibility for Game 3, James understands as much as anyone the way superstars are judged and the disproportionate burden of stardom.
"I have all the confidence in the world in my teammates. But I am the star, I am the leader, and they look at me to do things on the court, to make plays," he said. "And if I'm not doing it, I'm not doing my job."
So he's vowed to be "better" in Game 4, with much of the focus trained on how a jumper-reliant James has managed just six free-throw attempts in three games, including a big fat zero in Game 3. Like just about everyone else in the free world, LeBron finds this unacceptable.
"I mean, 7 for 21 isn't going to cut it. Zero free throws," James said. "I had 11 rebounds, I had 5 assists, but 7 for 21 and zero free throws ain't going to cut it [...] You have to figure out ways offensively that you can make an impact."
One would assume, then, that James would look for more opportunities to drive to the basket against the San Antonio defense and seek contact in the paint, which could make the game management of referees Scott Foster, Mike Callahan and Bill Kennedy a key element of Game 4. (Here's hoping not, though.)
3. So how can the Heat get LeBron attacking more often?
For one thing, he can start by trying to take advantage of San Antonio switches/cross-matches that result in him singled up on the likes of Tim Duncan or Tiago Splitter up top. He's drawn those matchups multiple times in this series and too often settled for jumpers rather than trying to take the Spurs' bigs off the bounce, which in context makes sense (don't drive into a thicket of defenders' arms, do take a shot that your teammates have a better chance of rebounding without a big inside) but also reduces the likelihood of him drawing a foul on the drive or getting to a rim unprotected by a shot-blocker. Ditto for post touches — Leonard and Green have been better against James on the block than many suspected thus far, but the sheer number of ways James can dismantle a defense from the post would seem to demand more opportunities there.
What else? On Wednesday, James mentioned pushing the ball off defensive rebounds, "where I'm getting the ball off the backboard and trying to create some early offense instead of playing against their half‑court defense." He also seemed to like one reporter's suggestion of receiving the ball on the move rather than operating in a static screen-and-roll attack where the Spurs defense can load up and key in on him.
Will Miami go back to the Chalmers-James pick-and-roll? (Noah Graham/NBAE/Getty Images)
On that last score, it'll be interesting to see if Spoelstra decides to take another look at the pick-and-roll with with Miami had such success in Game 2, as James and point guard Mario Chalmers sliced and diced the Spurs defense to key their huge second-half run. The Heat didn't go to it very much in Game 3 and were unsuccessful when they did, generating no field-goal attempts and three turnovers in the Chalmers-James screen game.
Miami did, however, get some good looks when James ran it with Cole early in the game, with the backup hitting a short jumper, LeBron creating a baseline dive and dunk for Chris Andersen, and Cole getting a layup that missed but generated an offensive rebounding opportunity on successive trips in the first quarter. They largely went away from it, however, after Leonard used his long arms and strong hands to steal an attempted Cole feed to a rolling James on the first play of the second quarter — but an eventual return to the action netted James an open 3-pointer.
So why did it work with Cole and not with Chalmers? Well, for one thing, Chalmers seemed to have an awful time finding any sort of rhythm or pace in Game 3, following up his fantastic Game 2 performance with an 0-for-5, four-turnover, four-foul clunker. For another, though, the successful Chalmers-James pick-and-rolls from Game 2 came with the duo sharing the floor with floor-spacers Allen and Mike Miller, who forced the Spurs' wings to stay connected to them defensively (opening up those "creases" for Chalmers and James) or pay the price via the long ball.
All three times they tried it in Game 3, though, they ran it with Dwyane Wade on the floor, and — as I've written — Wade's been awful shooting from anywhere outside the restricted area. This gives the Spurs defending Wade (mostly Green and Manu Ginobili) a license to sag even further off him than San Antonio's been sagging off James, which all but eliminates any of the space Chalmers or James might be able to use to either pull up or attack the rack after the screen: